One final round of predictions :)
Sep. 25th, 2021 11:50 pmThe final Super Smash Bros. Ultimate character is being announced soon, and I want to record my predictions for it. And yeah, later I'll go back and assess my previous predictions on this topic, but one thing at a time.
So, here are the 5 characters I think are most likely, in order. I'm not going to assign specific probabilities to these, but, like, to be clear, these are the individual possibilities I'd assign the highest probabilities; I don't think any of these breaks 1/2. Collectively they're well over 1/2, for sure, but they sure as hell don't total to 1; we all know Sakurai loves to surprise us.
Note I'm making some assumptions in making this, about what characters can and cannot appear. I think quite a lot of characters, who would otherwise be quite likely, are basically ruled out. If that weren't the case, many of these characters would rank highly on the list; but since I think they are ruled out, I'm only choosing from what remains.
First, I think no assist trophy characters will be added. I just don't see it happening; otherwise a number of these characters would make the list. (Bomberman might be my most wanted character, but I'm pretty sure he's not making it.) Secondly, it seems pretty clear that no characters who got Mii costumes in Fighters Pass 2 will be added. Mii Costumes from the base game or Fighters Pass 1 aren't off-limits (although they do reduce likelihodd), but if a Mii Costume is in Fighters Pass 2, well, it's there as a consolation prize; they're adding it because that fighter isn't making it in in the same pass. Also, no characters would would make sense primarily as echo fighters (e.g. Dixie Kong), because they said there will be no echo fighers in the pass. Finally, some characters have been more or less deconfirmed by the people who work on their games; obviously, these won't be making it in. Specifically, I'm thinking of Ryu Hayabusa here; he's not making the list.
A category of character that I don't think is impossible, but which I don't think is likely enough to make the list, is characters from existing 3rd party franchises. Tails, Knuckles, X, Proto Man... all of these would be cool choices, but they don't seem very likely to me. None of them are making the list. Similarly, in picking any 3rd party character, a key consideration will be, how good a relation with Nintendo does the company that owns them have? If it's not particularly good, they're not making the list; that's why Crash isn't here.
So, what do I think will happen? I'd say the most likely possibility is Rayman. I think Rayman is quite likely -- maybe as high as 40% -- for the same reasons I stated in my previous post on the subject. He's Ubisoft's version of the platforming mascot -- platforming mascots forming a lot of Smash's backbone IMO -- and Nintendo has been quite friendly with Ubisoft recently, which seems to have a lot to do with how Smash DLC is picked. More specifically, Ubisoft is the company which currently has the most content in the game but no actual playable characters. And it'd be an exciting pick, that people would want! So I think the evidence points towards Rayman as the most likely.
But he's certainly not the only possibility! In second place I'd put a Generation VIII Pokemon. This would likely be a pretty boring choice, but, well... it's a boring choice largely because we know that putting in recent Pokemon is something Nintendo likes doing. So, y'know, second place.
In third place I'm going to put Master Chief. I think there's a definite possibility. Not a platforming mascot, but definitely another mascot, which makes him a good choice. And we've already got two characters owned by Microsoft in the game, so clearly Nintendo is capable of making deals with them!
In fourth place I'm going to put a Rhythm Heaven character. This one's definitely a bit out there; it's not clear what it would be. But it's a Nintendo franchise with no character... and unlike some others, it's not ruled out due to assist trophy. And, importantly, there's reason to believe that work was started on a Rhythm Heaven character for Smash 4. Characters that were cut from or considered for have been a decent guide to what will appear in future Smash games in the past, so I think this is on the table.
Finally in fifth place I'm going to put Phoenix Wright. He's an iconic Capcom character, he's the protagonist (or at least best-known character) of his series, and, unlike, say, Dante, there's nothing to rule him out. So, uh, I think he has to be considered as a live possibility.
And that's my list of prediction! These are of course not the only possibilities... but I don't think any other individual character (or series) is likely enough to be of note. If it's not one of those 5, I'll be pretty surprised. And, uh, in a week and a half, we'll see whether I'm right!
So, here are the 5 characters I think are most likely, in order. I'm not going to assign specific probabilities to these, but, like, to be clear, these are the individual possibilities I'd assign the highest probabilities; I don't think any of these breaks 1/2. Collectively they're well over 1/2, for sure, but they sure as hell don't total to 1; we all know Sakurai loves to surprise us.
Note I'm making some assumptions in making this, about what characters can and cannot appear. I think quite a lot of characters, who would otherwise be quite likely, are basically ruled out. If that weren't the case, many of these characters would rank highly on the list; but since I think they are ruled out, I'm only choosing from what remains.
First, I think no assist trophy characters will be added. I just don't see it happening; otherwise a number of these characters would make the list. (Bomberman might be my most wanted character, but I'm pretty sure he's not making it.) Secondly, it seems pretty clear that no characters who got Mii costumes in Fighters Pass 2 will be added. Mii Costumes from the base game or Fighters Pass 1 aren't off-limits (although they do reduce likelihodd), but if a Mii Costume is in Fighters Pass 2, well, it's there as a consolation prize; they're adding it because that fighter isn't making it in in the same pass. Also, no characters would would make sense primarily as echo fighters (e.g. Dixie Kong), because they said there will be no echo fighers in the pass. Finally, some characters have been more or less deconfirmed by the people who work on their games; obviously, these won't be making it in. Specifically, I'm thinking of Ryu Hayabusa here; he's not making the list.
A category of character that I don't think is impossible, but which I don't think is likely enough to make the list, is characters from existing 3rd party franchises. Tails, Knuckles, X, Proto Man... all of these would be cool choices, but they don't seem very likely to me. None of them are making the list. Similarly, in picking any 3rd party character, a key consideration will be, how good a relation with Nintendo does the company that owns them have? If it's not particularly good, they're not making the list; that's why Crash isn't here.
So, what do I think will happen? I'd say the most likely possibility is Rayman. I think Rayman is quite likely -- maybe as high as 40% -- for the same reasons I stated in my previous post on the subject. He's Ubisoft's version of the platforming mascot -- platforming mascots forming a lot of Smash's backbone IMO -- and Nintendo has been quite friendly with Ubisoft recently, which seems to have a lot to do with how Smash DLC is picked. More specifically, Ubisoft is the company which currently has the most content in the game but no actual playable characters. And it'd be an exciting pick, that people would want! So I think the evidence points towards Rayman as the most likely.
But he's certainly not the only possibility! In second place I'd put a Generation VIII Pokemon. This would likely be a pretty boring choice, but, well... it's a boring choice largely because we know that putting in recent Pokemon is something Nintendo likes doing. So, y'know, second place.
In third place I'm going to put Master Chief. I think there's a definite possibility. Not a platforming mascot, but definitely another mascot, which makes him a good choice. And we've already got two characters owned by Microsoft in the game, so clearly Nintendo is capable of making deals with them!
In fourth place I'm going to put a Rhythm Heaven character. This one's definitely a bit out there; it's not clear what it would be. But it's a Nintendo franchise with no character... and unlike some others, it's not ruled out due to assist trophy. And, importantly, there's reason to believe that work was started on a Rhythm Heaven character for Smash 4. Characters that were cut from or considered for have been a decent guide to what will appear in future Smash games in the past, so I think this is on the table.
Finally in fifth place I'm going to put Phoenix Wright. He's an iconic Capcom character, he's the protagonist (or at least best-known character) of his series, and, unlike, say, Dante, there's nothing to rule him out. So, uh, I think he has to be considered as a live possibility.
And that's my list of prediction! These are of course not the only possibilities... but I don't think any other individual character (or series) is likely enough to be of note. If it's not one of those 5, I'll be pretty surprised. And, uh, in a week and a half, we'll see whether I'm right!
